So I’m just going to break it down on investing in the current market from the macro side.  I just spoke to a close friend who returned from Columbia.  Basically everything laid out from an economic analysis of their observations regarding the country further strengthens the stock market trends that we have been observing and reporting in our various stock newsletters.  The fact is that the strongest economies currently are those of exporters.

More specifically exporters of non durables where the country has limited exposure to the primary tidal wave of bank debacles associated with mortgage backed securities and the coming tidal wave of potentially devastating exposure of banks that own the debt from the commercial real estate market.  In the US, the regional banks have been falling like dominos and are either taken over by the FDIC or absorbed by investing groups that plan on creating the next round of debt related exotic securities.  This time the notes are from the billions of bad debt related to commercial property.

It is a simple pattern in the US that has been repeated a number of times.  This is perhaps the most devastating economic crisis the country has ever faced.  Basically the dollar is weak.  Companies in the US laid people off. This in combination with a huge number of loans on residential property handed out like hot cakes to non qualified investors.  Then the trading of this d and f or Omega in reality as my economist friend likes to liken it too, the last letter in a dead language quality wise.  Companies are no longer able to pay their rent.  Retail space has also been built out too quickly and even those buildings and strip malls once considered sure bets for high occupancy rates instead have record rates of available space.  This creates another phenomenon of commercial notes becoming non-performing and the banks are forced to rate it as bad debt.

Now the big four banks are decently positioned with their (our) TARP bailout money and other revenue streams to handle the bad debt on their books.  They have just stopped loaning and are pushing towards opening new accounts and fee based money management.  The huge problem is the billions of commercial real estate debt owned by the regional banks that did not receive any bailout money.  In Southern California, there are many regional banks that fit into this sad reality.  In fact, we’ve had a chance to look over many opportunities for investing in notes from various regional banks.  So investing tip number one, and this is difficult for us to admit as my life has been surrounded by stock picks for more than 15 years, BUY debt on commercial properties.  There are amazing opportunities out there to pick up the debt on commercial properties that are still performing.  Often the debt can be purchased for a 50%-70% discount to face value.  Further negotiations with the current owners of the property can increase that margin significantly as eventual failure and non-performance on the debt is likely and complete ownership will ensue.

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